IEA Report for September 2020

September 15, 2020

The IEA released their report for September 2020. The headline is that 4Q2020 demand for Crude was lowered by 600KBpd. Our summary of the meaningful bullets: 

  • A resurgence of Covid-19 cases in many countries, local lockdown measures, continued teleworking and the weak aviation sector led to downward revisions of our demand estimates for 3Q20 and 4Q20 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. 
  • China continues to recover strongly while India is showing renewed weakness.
  • OECD industry stocks rose by 13.5 mb (0.44 mb/d) to 3 225 mb in July. For the year to July, they have increased by 334.5 mb, at an average rate of 1.57 mb/d. 
  • Crude futures prices rose until late August when weak financial markets and a growing overhang of unsold barrels triggered a steady fall into September. Reports of floating storage also weighed on sentiment. Reduced buying by China, which has lent support since April, is a major factor. 

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