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Shortened Holiday Week Offers Less Market Drivers

July 1, 2020

Crude Oil is quieter in a holiday-shortened week. 

 

DOE report was supportive, enabling Oil to hold onto gains from the API stats, which also saw a big oil draw.

 

Crude -7.2 (0.3 expected)

Gasoline +1.2 (1-.3 expected)

Distillate -0.6 (unch expected)

Cushing -0.3

Production 11.0/d unch

 

As a reminder of the risk during this period of covid/fluctuating supply and demand, Saudi Arabia has warned its OPEC+ cartel partners that if past/current non-compliance is not upheld, they will unleash a second price war. While the markets did not react to that pronouncement, it does inform participants of the need to respect the potential downside and use Risk Driven hedges to protect Low Case estimates.

 

Natural Gas is mostly choppy with LNG capping and weather supporting prices. LNG exports are down to 3.2 bcf/d, the lowest since cancellation of cargoes began this spring. This level is ~6 bcf/d below current capacity. 



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